As the New Year approaches I want to wish all of you the best for 2009. For many this will be a challenging year. During the holiday vacation I have spend more than a few hours sitting at coffee shops looking out the window and wondering what the new year has in store. This picture was made during one of those visits.
I still find myself scooterless. Hoping for some update on the status of the mythic master cylinder for my Vespa GTS I stopped by the dealer today but they are closed until Friday. Perhaps good news will arrive.
And thanks to those of you who have emailed me with suggestions on where to get the part stateside. I know now that other Vespa dealers have master cylinders in stock and that some even pull parts from scooters in inventory in order to get someone back on the road again. That's a novel idea. But I am content to let things unfold as they will.
At this time of year I review the past year and make plans for the one to come. During this process I received an email from friend and photographer
Frank Armstrong that itemized some things that are changing. I'm not sure why but reading through the list helped me put a perspective on where I am today and where I might want to be tomorrow.
24 THINGS ABOUT TO BECOME EXTINCT IN AMERICA24. Yellow PagesThis year will be pivotal for the global Yellow Pages industry. Much like newspapers, print Yellow Pages will continue to bleed dollars to their various digital counterparts, from Internet Yellow Pages (IYPs), to local search engines and combination search/listing services like Reach Local and Yodle Factors like an acceleration of the print 'fade rate' and the looming recession will contribute to the onslaught. One research firm predicts the falloff in usage of newspapers and print Yellow Pages could even reach 10% this year -- much higher than the 2%-3% fade rates seen in pastyears.
23. Classified AdsThe Internet has made so many things obsolete that newspaper classified ads might sound like just another trivial item on a long list. But this is one of those harbingers of the future that could signal the end of civilization as we know it. The argument is that if newspaper classifieds are replaced by free online listings at sites like Craigslist.org and Google Base, then newspapers are not far behind them.
22. Movie Rental StoresWhile Netflix is looking up at the moment, Blockbuster keeps closing store locations by th e hundreds. It still has about 6,000 left across the world, but those keep dwindling and the stock is down considerably in 2008, especially since the company gave up a quest of Circuit City . Movie Gallery, which owned the Hollywood Video brand, closed up shop earlier this year. Countless small video chains and mom-and-pop stores have given up the ghost already.
21. Dial-up Internet AccessDial-up connections have fallen from 40% in 2001 to 10% in 2008. The combination of an infrastructure to accommodate affordable high speed Internet connections and the disappearing home phone have all but pounded the final nail in the coffin of dial-up Internet access.
20. Phone LandlinesAccording to a survey from the National Center for Health Statistics, at the end of 2007, nearly one in six homes was cell-only and, of those homes that had landlines, one in eight only received calls on their cells.
19. Chesapeake Bay Blue CrabsMaryland 's icon, the blue crab, has been fading away in Chesapeake Bay . Last year Maryland saw the lowest h arvest (22 million pounds) since 1945. Just four decades ago the bay produced 96 million pounds. The population is down 70% since 1990, when they first did
a formal count. There are only about 120 million crabs in the bay and they think they need 200 million for a sustainable population. Over-fishing, pollution, invasive species and global warming get the blame.
18. VCRs
For the better part of three decades, the VCR was a best-seller and staple in every American household until being completely decimated by the DVD, and now the Digital Video Recorder (DVR). In fact, the only remnants of the VHS age at your local Wal-Mart or Radio Shack are blank VHS tapes these days. Pre-recorded VHS tapes are largely gone and VHS decks are practically nowhere to be found. They served us so well.
17. Ash Trees
In the late 1990s, a pretty, iridescent green species of beetle, now known as the emerald ash borer, hitched a ride to North America with ash wood products imported from eastern Asia . In less than a decade, its larvae have killed millions of trees in the Midwest , and continue to spread. They've killed more than 30 million ash trees in southeastern Michigan alone, with tens of millions more lost in Ohio and Indiana . More than 7.5 billion ash trees are currently at risk.
16. Ham Radio
Amateur radio operators enjoy personal (and often worldwide) wireless communications with each other and are able to support their communities with emergency and disaster communications if necessary, while increasing their personal knowledge of electronics and radio theory. However, proliferation of the Internet and its popularity among youth has caused the decline of amateur radio. In the past five years alone, the number of people holding active ham radio licenses has dropped by 50,000, even though Morse Code is no longer a requirement.
15. The Swimming Hole
Thanks to our litigious society, swimming holes are becoming a thing of the past. '20/20' reports that swimming hole owners, like Robert Every in High Falls, NY, are shutting them down out of worry that if someone gets hurt they'll sue. And that's exactly what happened in Seattle . The city of Bellingham was sued by Katie Hofstetter who was paralyzed in a fall at a popular swimming hole in Whatcom Falls Park . As injuries occur and lawsuits follow, expect more swimming holes to post 'Keep out!' signs.
14. Answering Machines
The increasing disappearance of answering machines is directly tied to No 20 our list -- the decline of landlines. According to USA Today, the number of homes that only use cell phones jumped 159% between 2004 and 2007. It has been particularly bad in New York ; since 2000, landline usage has dropped 55%. It's logical that as cell phones rise, many of them replacing traditional landlines, that there will be fewer answering machines.
13. Cameras That Use Film
It doesn't require a statistician to prove the rapid disappearance of the film camera in America . Just look to companies like Nikon, the professional's choice for quality camera equipment. In 2006, it announced that it would stop making film cameras, pointing to the shrinking market -- only 3% of its sales in 2005, compared to 75% of sales from digital cameras and equipment.
12. Incandescent Bulbs
Before a few years ago, the standard 60-watt (or, yikes, 100-watt) bulb was the mainstay of every U.S. home. With the green movement and all-things-sustainable-energy crowd, the Compact Fluorescent Lightbulb (CFL) is largely replacing the older, Edison-era incandescent bulb. The EPA reports that 2007 sales for Energy Star CFLs nearly doubled from 2006, and these sales accounted for approximately 20 percent of the U.S. light bulb market. And according to USA Today, a new energy bill plans to phase out incandescent bulbs in the next four to 12 years.
11. Stand-Alone Bowling Alleys
BowlingBalls.US claims there are still 60 million Americans who bowl at least once a year, but many are not bowling in stand-alone bowling alleys. Today most new bowling alleys are part of facilities for all types or recreation including laser tag, go-karts, bumper cars, video game arcades, climbing walls and glow miniature golf. Bowling lanes also have been added to many non-traditional venues such as adult communities, hotels and resorts, and gambling casinos.
10. The Milkman
According to the U.S. De partment of Agriculture, in 1950, over half of the milk delivered was to the home in quart bottles, by 1963, it was about a third and by 2001, it represented only 0.4% percent. Nowadays most milk is sold through supermarkets in gallon jugs. The steady decline in home-delivered milk is blamed, of course, on the rise of the supermarket, better home refrigeration and longer-lasting milk. Although some milkmen still make the rounds in pockets of the U.S. , they are certainly a dying breed.
9. Hand-Written Letters
In 2006, the Radicati Group estimated that, worldwide, 183 billion e-mails were sent each day. Two million each second. By November of 2007, an estimated 3.3 billion Earthlings owned cell phones, and 80% of the world's population had access to cell phone co verage. In 2004, half-a-trillion text messages were sent, and the number has no doubt increased exponentially since then. So where amongst this gorge of gabble is there room for the elegant, polite hand-written letter
8. Wild Horses
It is estimated that 100 years ago, as many as two million horses were roaming free within the United States . In 2001, National Geographic News estimated that the wild horse population had decreased to about 50,000 head. Currently, the National Wild Horse and Burro Advisory board states that there are 32,000 free roaming horses in ten Western states, with half of them residing in Nevada . The Bureau of Land Management is seeking to reduce the total number of free range horses to 27,000, possibly by selective euthanasia.
7. Personal Checks
According to an American Bankers Assoc. report, a net 23% of consumers plan to decrease their use of checks over the next two years, while a net 14% plan to increase their use of PIN debit. Bill payment remains the last stronghold of paper-based payments -- for the time being. Checks continue to be the most commonly used bill payment method, with 71% of consumers paying at least one recurring bill per month by writing a check. However, on a bill-by-bill basis, checks account for only 49% of consumers' recurring bill payments (down from 72% in 2001 and 60% in 2003).
6. Drive-in Theaters
During the peak in 1958, there were more than 4,000 drive-in theaters in this country, but in 2007 only 405 drive-ins were still operating. Exactly zero new drive-ins have been built since 2005. Only one reopened in 2005 and five reopened in 2006, so there isn't much of a movement toward reviving the closed ones.
5. Mumps & Measles
Despite what's been in the news lately, the measles and mumps actually, truly are disappearing from the United States . In 1964, 212,000 cases of mumps were reported in the U .S. By 1983, this figure had dropped to 3,000, thanks to a vigorous vaccination program. Prior to the introduction of the measles vaccine, approximately half a million cases of measles were reported in the U.S. annually, resulting in 450 deaths. In 2005, only 66 cases were recorded.
4. Honey Bees
Perhaps nothing on our list of disappearing America is so dire; plummeting so enormously; and so necessary to the survival of our food supply as the honey bee. Very scary. 'Colony Collapse Disorder,' or CCD, has spread throughout the U.S. and Europe over the past few years, wiping out 50% to 90% of the colonies of many beekeepers -- and along with it, their livelihood.
3. News Magazines and TV News
While the TV evening newscasts haven't gone anywhere over the last several decades, their audiences have. In 1984, in a story about the diminishing returns of the evening news, the New York Times reported that all three network evening-news programs combined had only 40.9 million viewers. Fast forward to 2008, and what they have today is half that.
2. Analog TV
According to the Consumer Electronics Association, 85% of homes in the U.S. get their television programming through cable or satellite providers. For the remaining 15% -- or 13 million individuals -- who are using rabbit ears or a large outdoor antenna to get their local stations, change is in the air. If you are one of these people you'll need to get a new TV or a converter box in order to get the new stations which will only be broadcast in digital.
1. The Family Farm
Since the 1930s, the number of family farms has been declining rapidly. According to the USDA, 5.3 million farms dotted the nation in 1950, but this number had declined to 2.1 million by the 2003 farm census (data from the 2007 census hasn't yet been published). Ninety-one percent of the U.S. farms are small family farms.
Yesterday I sat in the Terminal Cafe after a morning of riding and searching for the right Valentine's Day gift for Kim. In my head I was writing a message for a card I picked out, how I would reveal the gift, and imagining the day. Looking at the couple across the street I imagined the two of us. Romantic.
By the time I got to the cafe a coating of new snow covered the ground. Secondary roads, streets, and alleys in town were snow covered. The main roadways were mostly wet but a thin film of slush was building up in places. Had I started any later I probably wouldn't have been able to find what I was looking for.
I should probably explain the rock. I've been looking for several weeks for the right one. I'm not sure how many other men and women would be content giving or receiving a rock. It won't make many retailers smile or assist in an economic recovery. But Kim and I find satisfaction in the graceful elegance and beauty in rocks and stones. I've brought home 800 pound ones to ones the size of something that will fit under the seat of the Vespa.
Riding can reflect the same grace and elegance found in a stone. And it can trigger thoughts and feelings consistent with the second definition of romantic. This morning was an adventure. Gray skies and the thermometer hovered near the freezing mark when I left in the house and rode into the mountains.
I knew what I was looking for but uncertain where to find it. A small rock or stone transportable on the scooter with the right character and personality. Perhaps something with moss growing on it, a small fern, or a lichen. Sometimes you can find them along a creek.
Snow began to fall as I rode off onto an old fire road. My concentration in finding a stone was broken by concerns that the roads might become more hazardous if I remained too long. Part of my attention focused on rocks and part on the weather. Ten minutes of examining the floor of the woods and still nothing. Snow started to build up and it was apparent that I needed to go.
Snow is an indicator of risk and when it falls I monitor things constantly. My Motofizz bag was accumulating snow. The temperature indicator on the Vespa read 30 degrees. It was only a matter of time before the roads would be covered.
I planned to head straight home but could not pass a large rockfield for one last look. Climbing up the steep hill with patches of ice hidden under leaves and in crevasses I wondered what would happen if I took a bad fall with no one around. It was a few miles from here, up higher on the mountain that Kim fell and broke her leg and I had to carry her down to the car. A touch of the front pocket of my riding pants confirmed I had the cellphone. My emergency backup plan.
Back at the scooter I knew two things. I had the rock I was searching for, and the road was completely snow covered will more falling faster now. It definitely was time to ride. Out of the mountains and into the valley the snow continued to fall but wasn't accumulating much on the main road so I decided to ride into town for breakfast at the Terminal Cafe.
The road home was quiet, comfortable, and open for thought. The temperature was above freezing now and the snow was fading. All that was left was to write in a card what I had developed in my head during the morning. Red sealing wax on the envelop and an impression from a special, romantic wax seal would complete my ideas for the card. I had to stop for one last picture, to stand and look out over the landscape and let the morning replay in my head. The riding, the romantic.
